Why green coffee got cheaper… then spiked again (and what it means for your cup)

If it feels like coffee prices have been on a rollercoaster this year, you’re not imagining it. Here’s the short version in plain English: prices rocketed to records in early 2025, eased off in early summer, and are now climbing again—fast. What’s going on, and how are we handling it at Acorns Coffee?

The surge:

Arabica futures (the global benchmark that underpins most specialty contracts) smashed through all-time highs in late January and early February on fears of tight supply and hot, dry Brazilian weather. Some sessions even saw “panic buying.” 

The dip:

Through June and July, pressure eased. The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator (a broad world price) fell sharply—July averaged about 259 US cents/lb, down ~12% from June. In simple terms: the market finally took a breath. 

The new spike:

Late August brought a fresh jolt. A new 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee upended trade flows just as Brazil’s crop outlook shrank and frost risks crept in—pushing arabica up more than 30% from late July into August. Brazil’s own raw bean prices jumped nearly 25% month-on-month. That combination—tariffs + weather—has yanked prices higher again. 

Why it’s happening:

• Weather whiplash: Brazil (arabica) and Vietnam (robusta) have both faced tough seasons—heat, drought, and timing headaches. When the two biggest origins wobble, the whole market feels it.  
• Low exchange stocks & financing strain: Certified exchange inventories have been thin, and higher margin requirements made hedging pricier—both can amplify moves when sentiment turns jumpy.  
• Policy shock: That sudden U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee forced buyers to scramble to alternative origins (often at a premium), compounding the squeeze.  

What this could mean next:

Volatility tends to feed on itself. If weather stays tricky or policy frictions persist, green prices can stay elevated—and that usually filters through to roasted coffee with a lag. (Earlier in the summer some retail prices even ticked down in Brazil before this latest surge—illustrating the lag we’re talking about.) 

So… will your Acorns Coffee get pricier?

Good news for now: because of how we’ve pre-bought and diversified our green coffee, we don’t need to raise our prices just yet. We planned ahead to soften exactly this kind of bump. That said, if raw costs keep spiking (and stay there), we may eventually need to nudge prices to keep paying farmers fairly and keep our quality where you expect it. We’ll be transparent if that day comes.

How to read the headlines without the headache:

• Big, sudden moves often come from one-two punches (weather + policy).
• Drops don’t always last if fundamentals tighten again.
• Retail prices lag futures—today’s roaster costs become tomorrow’s shelf prices.

In the meantime, we’ll keep roasting the coffees you love and watching the market like hawks—so you don’t have to. Thanks for supporting a roaster that buys carefully, pays responsibly, and keeps the coffee tasting great.