Could Coffee Become a Luxury Product? Why Coffee Prices Keep Rising in 2026

Why are coffee prices rising?

Coffee prices are rising because multiple pressures are affecting the coffee industry at the same time. Climate change is impacting harvests in major producing countries, shipping disruptions are increasing transport costs, energy prices remain elevated, and cafés and roasteries are facing higher labour and operating expenses. Together, these factors are pushing up the cost of producing, transporting, roasting and serving coffee around the world.

At Acorns Coffee Roastery, we’ve seen green coffee prices increase significantly over recent years across many of the origins we source. While every crop and harvest is different, the overall trend highlights how global events increasingly influence local coffee businesses.

Could Coffee Become a Luxury Product?

A few years ago, most coffee drinkers rarely thought about where their coffee came from.

Today, that’s beginning to change.

Coffee prices have risen significantly in recent years. Cafés have had to increase menu prices, supermarkets have raised the cost of coffee on their shelves, and roasters across the UK have seen green coffee prices reach levels that would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago.

Many people assume there is a single reason behind these increases.

The reality is far more complicated.

The cost of your morning coffee is now influenced by climate change in Brazil, shipping routes through the Red Sea, labour costs in the UK, currency fluctuations, energy prices, and decisions made by governments thousands of miles apart.

At Acorns Coffee Roastery, we source coffees from some of the world’s most important coffee-growing regions. Through our Coffee Atlas and single-origin range, we regularly explore the stories behind coffees from countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Rwanda and Vietnam.

Understanding where coffee comes from helps explain why coffee prices have changed so dramatically—and why the future of coffee may look very different from its past.

How Different Coffee Origins Are Being Affected

One of the fascinating aspects of coffee is that every origin faces its own unique challenges.

Understanding these origins helps explain why global coffee prices can be so volatile.

Brazil

Brazil remains the world’s largest coffee producer and has an enormous influence on global coffee prices.

When Brazil experiences drought, frost or unusually high temperatures, the effects are felt throughout the entire coffee market. Even small changes in Brazilian production can impact global supply expectations and influence coffee futures markets.

Many coffee drinkers may never purchase Brazilian coffee directly, yet events in Brazil often affect the price of coffee everywhere.

Explore more in our Coffee Atlas guide .

Colombia

Colombia is renowned for producing high-quality arabica coffee.

However, changing rainfall patterns have created increasing challenges for farmers. Coffee plants rely on predictable flowering and harvesting cycles, and unusual weather can disrupt production schedules and affect quality.

Many of the balanced, caramel-sweet coffees enjoyed around the world depend upon stable growing conditions that are becoming harder to predict.

Explore more in our Coffee Atlas guide .

Ethiopia

Often considered the birthplace of coffee, Ethiopia remains one of the most important origins in specialty coffee.

Many Ethiopian farms are small family-run operations that depend heavily on local weather patterns. Changes in rainfall and temperature can have a significant impact on yields and quality.

The vibrant fruit and floral characteristics found in many Ethiopian coffees are closely linked to the unique environments in which they are grown.

Explore more in our Coffee Atlas guide .

Vietnam

Vietnam is the world’s second-largest coffee producer and the dominant producer of robusta coffee.

Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increasing production costs have all affected the sector in recent years.

Because robusta is widely used in espresso blends and commercial coffee production, changes in Vietnam’s output can have a significant impact on the wider coffee market.

Explore more in our Coffee Atlas guide to Vietnam.

Rwanda

Rwanda’s coffee industry has become increasingly recognised for producing exceptional specialty coffees.

Many farms are located at high elevations, which helps create the bright, complex flavours that coffee enthusiasts love. However, these mountainous growing regions can also be vulnerable to changing weather patterns and erosion caused by intense rainfall.

Explore more in our Coffee Atlas guide .

Nicaragua and El Salvador

Central American coffee producers face their own set of challenges, including changing rainfall patterns, plant diseases and economic pressures.

Despite these difficulties, both countries continue to produce outstanding coffees that showcase the diversity and resilience of coffee farming throughout the region.

Explore more in our Coffee Atlas guides to Nicaragua and El Salvador.

Coffee Is One of the World’s Most Global Products

Unlike many everyday products, coffee can only be grown within a relatively narrow band around the equator known as the Coffee Belt.

This region stretches across Central America, South America, Africa and parts of Asia. Every coffee-growing country has its own unique combination of altitude, rainfall, soil type and climate.

The flavours we enjoy in a cup of coffee are often direct reflections of these environments.

The chocolate and nut notes often found in Brazilian coffees, the bright fruit characteristics of Ethiopian coffees, or the rich spice and earthiness of coffees from Vietnam all begin with geography.

Our Coffee Atlas was created to help coffee drinkers explore these origins and understand how the environment shapes every bean.

However, the same environmental conditions that make great coffee possible are also surprisingly fragile.

Climate Change Is Already Affecting Coffee Farms

Coffee is a crop that thrives within specific conditions.

Arabica coffee, which accounts for much of the world’s specialty coffee production, prefers relatively stable temperatures, predictable rainfall patterns and distinct growing seasons.

When these conditions change, coffee production becomes more difficult.

A few degrees of additional heat may not sound significant, but for coffee farmers it can mean lower yields, slower plant development and greater susceptibility to pests and disease.

Across major producing countries, farmers are increasingly dealing with:

• Longer drought periods
• More intense rainfall events
• Unpredictable flowering seasons
• Increased pest pressure
• Higher temperatures

Brazil provides one of the clearest examples.

As the world’s largest coffee producer, events in Brazil influence coffee prices across the globe. Severe droughts and frost events in recent years damaged crops and reduced production expectations, creating uncertainty in global markets.

When a major producing country experiences difficulties, buyers begin competing for a smaller supply of coffee.

Prices rise.

That increase is eventually felt throughout the supply chain, from importers and roasters to cafés and consumers.

Why Climate Problems in One Country Affect Everyone

Many people are surprised to learn how interconnected the coffee market is.

Imagine a poor harvest in Brazil.

International buyers who would normally purchase Brazilian coffee may begin sourcing from Colombia, Central America or Africa instead.

This creates additional demand in those regions.

Increased demand pushes prices higher.

The effect spreads throughout the global coffee market.

Even if a coffee from Rwanda or El Salvador has enjoyed a successful harvest, its price may still increase because buyers are competing more aggressively for available supply.

This is one reason why coffee prices can rise even when the coffee itself has not experienced a poor harvest.

The market responds to global supply and demand rather than individual farms alone.

Conflict and Global Trade Routes

Climate change is only one part of the story.

Coffee travels thousands of miles before it reaches your cup.

A coffee harvested in Ethiopia may travel by truck to a processing facility, then to a port, onto a container ship, through international shipping routes, into Europe, through customs, into warehouses, and finally to a roastery.

Every stage adds cost.

When conflict disrupts trade routes, those costs increase.

Recent instability in the Middle East has highlighted the vulnerability of global shipping networks. Disruptions affecting routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal have forced some shipping companies to take longer journeys around Africa.

Read more about what we thought about the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on coffee pricing. 

Longer journeys mean:

• Higher fuel costs
• Increased insurance costs
• Greater shipping delays
• Reduced container availability

While coffee itself may still be available, getting it from farm to roastery becomes more expensive.

These costs are rarely visible to consumers, yet they form part of the final price paid for every bag of coffee.

Coffee Fact!

A coffee bean may travel over 6,000 miles and pass through farmers, processors, exporters, importers, roasters and cafés before reaching your cup.

The Cost Pressures Closer to Home

Once coffee reaches the UK, another set of challenges begins.

Independent cafés and roasteries face rising operational costs across almost every area of business.

These include:

• National Minimum Wage increases
• Employer National Insurance contributions
• Energy costs
• Rent
• Packaging
• Equipment maintenance
• Business rates
• Transport costs

For many hospitality businesses, these pressures have arrived at the same time.

The result is that coffee businesses are being squeezed from both directions.

The cost of sourcing coffee is increasing.

The cost of operating a business is increasing.

Eventually, some of those costs have to be reflected in retail prices.

What This Means For Acorns Coffee

As a small independent coffee roastery, we’ve seen significant changes in the coffee market over the past few years. Buying green coffee is no longer as simple as selecting a coffee we enjoy and placing an order. Today, sourcing coffee requires more planning, greater flexibility and a much closer understanding of what’s happening in coffee-growing countries around the world.

In the past, many coffees were relatively predictable in both availability and pricing. Now, harvest conditions, shipping delays, currency movements and global events can all influence whether a particular coffee is available and what it costs. This means we often need to plan our purchasing months in advance, keeping a close eye on harvest reports and market conditions while ensuring we can continue offering a consistent range of coffees to our customers.

Relationships have also become more important than ever. We work closely with trusted importers who help us source coffees from around the world and provide valuable insight into the challenges facing producers. Strong relationships throughout the supply chain help us maintain quality, improve traceability and continue sourcing exceptional coffees, even when market conditions become difficult.

Despite these challenges, our focus remains unchanged. We continue to seek out coffees that tell a story about where they were grown, whether that’s the chocolate notes of our Brazil Santos, the vibrant fruit characteristics of Ethiopia Yirgacheffe, or the bright complexity of Rwanda Liza. Rising costs and market pressures may change how coffee is bought and sold, but they haven’t changed why we roast coffee. We remain committed to sourcing quality coffees, sharing their stories through our Coffee Atlas, and helping our customers discover the remarkable journey behind every cup.

If you want to ask more about how we buy our beans, just ask Dayne in store while he’s crafting your coffee in the shop in Bordon, or roasting in the Roastery.

Why Specialty Coffee Often Feels More Expensive

Specialty coffee is often the first area consumers notice when prices rise.

However, specialty coffee is also the area most directly connected to farmers and quality-focused supply chains.

When purchasing a single-origin coffee, consumers are often paying for:

• Higher quality harvests
• More selective picking
• Improved processing methods
• Better traceability
• Sustainable farming practices

The single-origin coffees we feature at Acorns are sourced because they represent the character of a particular place, farm or region.

Whether it is a naturally processed Ethiopian coffee bursting with fruit notes or a balanced Colombian coffee with caramel sweetness, these coffees tell a story about where they were grown.

Maintaining that quality becomes increasingly difficult when farmers face climate uncertainty, rising production costs and volatile markets.

Could Coffee Become a Luxury Product?

Probably not.

Coffee remains one of the most traded agricultural commodities in the world, and farmers are constantly adapting to new challenges.

Researchers are developing more resilient coffee varieties.

Farmers are experimenting with shade-grown cultivation.

Growing regions are adapting to changing environmental conditions.

Supply chains continue to evolve.

But coffee is unlikely to become cheaper to produce.

The days of viewing coffee as an endlessly abundant commodity may be coming to an end.

Instead, consumers may begin to place greater value on understanding where coffee comes from, who grows it and the challenges involved in producing it.

Looking Beyond the Price Tag

When we explore a coffee through our Coffee Atlas or share the story of a new single-origin release, we’re not simply talking about flavour notes.

We’re talking about people, landscapes, weather patterns, farming traditions and global supply chains.

Every bag of coffee represents years of work and thousands of miles of travel.

Climate change, geopolitical conflict and economic pressures are all shaping the future of coffee, but they also highlight something important:

Coffee has never been just a commodity.

It is one of the world’s most remarkable agricultural products, connecting farmers, roasters and coffee drinkers across continents.

Understanding that journey helps explain not only why coffee costs what it does today, but why every cup has a story worth telling.

What We’re Seeing at Acorns Coffee Roastery

As a small independent roastery, we experience many of these changes first-hand.

Over recent years, we’ve seen significant increases in green coffee prices across multiple origins. While each harvest is different, the overall trend has been towards greater volatility and less predictability.

A drought in Brazil, shipping delays affecting international trade routes, or changes in labour costs can all eventually influence the price of the coffee we purchase.

For independent roasteries, this creates an ongoing balancing act.

We want to continue sourcing exceptional coffees, support sustainable supply chains and maintain quality, while also keeping coffee accessible for our customers.

Understanding where coffee comes from and the challenges faced by farmers has become more important than ever.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will coffee prices come down again?

Coffee prices may fluctuate in the future, but many of the underlying pressures remain in place. Climate challenges, labour costs, transportation expenses and growing global demand suggest that significant long-term reductions may be unlikely.

Is climate change affecting coffee farming?

Yes. Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall patterns. Farmers in many producing countries are already adapting to drought, extreme weather events and changing growing conditions.

Which countries produce the most coffee?

Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, followed by Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia and Ethiopia. Together, these countries account for a significant proportion of global coffee production.

Why is specialty coffee more expensive?

Specialty coffee often involves more selective harvesting, improved processing methods, greater traceability and higher quality standards. These factors increase production costs but also help create unique flavour profiles and support sustainable farming practices.

Could coffee run out?

No, coffee is unlikely to disappear. However, the regions where coffee is grown may change over time, and production could become more challenging and expensive as environmental and economic pressures increase.

Will coffee become a luxury product?

Coffee is unlikely to become a luxury product in the traditional sense, but consumers may continue to see higher prices and greater differences between mass-produced coffee and specialty coffee. Understanding the journey from farm to cup helps explain why quality coffee commands a premium.

Why has coffee become more expensive than tea?

While both tea and coffee are agricultural products, coffee is generally more expensive to produce, process and transport.

Coffee plants are highly sensitive to climate conditions and often grow at specific altitudes within the Coffee Belt, making them vulnerable to drought, extreme weather and changing temperatures. Coffee cherries must also be carefully harvested, processed, dried, exported, imported, roasted and packaged before they reach consumers.

Tea production faces its own challenges, but many tea-growing regions can produce multiple harvests each year, and the processing required is often less complex than that of specialty coffee.

In recent years, climate-related crop issues in major coffee-producing countries such as Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam, combined with rising shipping costs, labour shortages and increasing business expenses, have placed significant upward pressure on coffee prices worldwide.

As a result, coffee has experienced greater price volatility than tea, particularly within the specialty coffee sector where quality, traceability and sustainable sourcing are key priorities.

Further Reading

If you’d like to explore the story behind your coffee in more detail, we recommend:

• Our Coffee Atlas
• Why Coffee Prices Are Rising in 2026
• Explore Our Single Origin Coffees
• The Journey of Coffee: From Farm to Cup
• Understanding Coffee Processing Methods

The more we learn about coffee, the more we appreciate the people, places and challenges behind every cup.

Written by Acorns Coffee owner and roaster, Dayne Cartwright, June 2026