Brazil Arabica Prices Fall

Arabica pricing, June 2026: What It Means for Coffee Drinkers and Roasters

A few weeks ago, we asked a difficult question:

Could coffee become a luxury product?

After years of climate disruption, poor harvests, shipping issues and rising costs, coffee prices reached levels few in the industry had ever seen before.

Today, however, the conversation has changed.

Arabica coffee prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks, reaching their lowest levels since late 2024 as traders react to forecasts of a much larger Brazilian harvest. Market analysts are now predicting a substantial increase in Brazil’s 2026/27 crop, easing some of the supply concerns that have dominated coffee markets over the last two years.

So, has the coffee crisis been solved?

Not quite.

Why Are Prices Falling?

Brazil remains the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, and when Brazil has a good harvest, the entire coffee market pays attention. 

Did you know?

We use Brazil Santos, arabica, coffee bean in our coffee shop in Bordon, Hampshire, and it’s our most popular coffee bean sold in the Roastery.

Several industry forecasts released this spring point towards a significantly larger Brazilian crop than previously expected. Estimates range from around 71 million to over 75 million bags, which would represent one of the largest harvests ever recorded.

As a result, coffee futures have fallen sharply. A contrast to what we were thinking a few months ago, especially as global conflict impacted pricing.

Arabica futures are now trading near their lowest levels since November 2024, with prices down more than 20% since the start of the year.

In simple terms, markets believe there will be more coffee available than previously expected.

When supply rises, prices often fall.

The Market Isn’t the Same as the Farm

This is where things become more complicated.

While futures markets respond quickly to harvest forecasts, the reality on the ground is often very different.

Coffee farmers around the world are still facing:

• Rising labour costs
• Higher fertiliser prices
• Increasing energy costs
• Climate uncertainty
• More frequent extreme weather events

Even in Brazil, where harvest expectations are improving, growers continue to face long-term challenges from changing weather patterns and higher production costs.

A lower market price doesn’t suddenly erase those pressures.

For many producers, the challenge isn’t simply growing coffee—it’s growing coffee sustainably and profitably for the next generation.

What Does This Mean for Coffee Prices in Cafés?

One question we often hear is:

“If coffee prices are falling, why isn’t my coffee cheaper?”

The answer lies in the fact that roasted coffee prices are influenced by far more than just the raw bean market.

A bag of coffee includes:

• Green coffee costs
• Shipping
• Packaging
• Roasting
• Energy
• Staff wages
• Rent
• Equipment maintenance
• Tax

Green coffee is only one part of the overall cost.

Many roasters are also working through coffees purchased months ago when prices were significantly higher.

The coffee market moves daily.

Roasters and cafés operate on much longer timelines.

Coffee Fact:

Brazil produces roughly one-third of the world’s coffee, meaning even small changes in Brazilian harvest forecasts can influence coffee prices across the globe.

Explore how we travel from Brazil to Colombia in our coffee atlas.

A Reminder of How Quickly Things Change

One of the lessons from the last few years is just how volatile coffee has become.

Earlier this year, concerns over drought, poor harvests and climate pressures pushed prices to levels that prompted serious conversations about the future affordability of coffee. Today, forecasts of a record Brazilian crop are pushing prices in the opposite direction.

Neither story is necessarily wrong.

Coffee exists at the intersection of agriculture, weather, logistics and global economics.

A good harvest can ease pressure.

A drought, frost or shipping disruption can quickly bring it back.

What We’re Watching at Acorns Coffee

As a small independent roastery, we watch the coffee market closely—but we focus even more on quality and relationships.

Market prices matter.

Farmers matter more.

The coffees we choose are selected for flavour, consistency and the people behind them, not simply because they’re the cheapest available.

We’re pleased to see some stability returning to the market after a turbulent period, but we’re also conscious that many of the underlying challenges facing coffee producers remain.

The long-term future of coffee will depend not just on good harvests, but on creating a supply chain that works for everyone—from farmer to roaster to customer.

Frequently Asked Questions

Coffee prices can be confusing. Here are some of the most common questions we hear from customers about arabica prices, coffee farming and what market changes mean for your daily cup.

Why are arabica coffee prices falling?

Arabica coffee prices have fallen largely because forecasts suggest Brazil could produce one of its largest coffee harvests in years. As the world’s biggest arabica producer, Brazil has a major influence on global coffee markets. When supply is expected to increase, market prices often fall.

Is coffee becoming cheaper?

Not necessarily. While green coffee prices have fallen on commodity markets, roasted coffee prices are influenced by many other factors, including labour, energy, packaging, shipping and operating costs. Any reduction in retail prices is often delayed and may not fully reflect movements in the commodity market.

Will coffee prices continue to fall?

Coffee markets are notoriously unpredictable. Prices can change rapidly due to weather events, crop forecasts, political instability, shipping disruptions or changes in global demand. While current forecasts point towards greater supply, future market conditions can change quickly.

Why does Brazil have such a large impact on coffee prices?

Brazil is the world’s largest coffee-producing country and accounts for a significant proportion of global arabica production. A strong or weak Brazilian harvest can influence global supply expectations and therefore affect prices worldwide.

Are coffee farmers benefiting from lower coffee prices?

Lower market prices can be challenging for coffee farmers. Although consumers may welcome cheaper coffee, producers still face rising costs for labour, fertiliser, equipment and transportation. Sustainable coffee production depends on farmers receiving fair returns for their crops.

What is the difference between arabica and robusta coffee?

Arabica coffee is generally known for its sweeter, more complex flavour profile with notes of fruit, chocolate and caramel. Robusta typically contains more caffeine and produces a stronger, more intense flavour. Most speciality coffee, including many of the coffees we roast at Acorns Coffee, is arabica.

Could coffee prices rise again?

Yes. Coffee prices are heavily influenced by weather and climate conditions. Droughts, frosts, excessive rainfall or supply chain disruptions can quickly reduce available supply and push prices higher. Recent years have shown just how quickly market sentiment can change.

What does this mean for Acorns Coffee customers?

For now, our focus remains on sourcing exceptional coffees and building relationships with trusted producers and importers. While market conditions influence purchasing decisions, quality, consistency and sustainability remain at the heart of every coffee we roast.

Further Reading

If you enjoyed this article, you may also like:

• Could Coffee Become a Luxury Product?
• Coffee Atlas: From Brazil Santos to Colombia Finca Sofia
• Growing Up at Acorns
• How We Built an Award-Winning Coffee Roastery from a Horsebox During Covid

From tiny acorns, mighty oaks grow.

Written by Dayne Cartwright, June 2026. Owner of Acorns Coffee Roastery.